A price of 1.40, chosen only for a teaching example, gives a reciprocal of roughly 71.43% before adjustment for market margin. That is not a guarantee or a match-specific estimate. The method derives estimates from the relevant market prices while accounting for margin between outcomes, not by subtracting a constant from a single decimal price. A publication’s reference records the comparison made then; a price accepted later can be different. A very likely selection can still offer weak value if its price does not suit the estimated chance.
The method converts reference bookmaker odds into estimated probabilities, with the bookmaker margin removed. These are market-derived estimates, not certainty about a match.
Compare probability with price.
Probability-v2 ranks eligible selections by their estimated probability and can include prices with negative estimated value. It is a market-derived probability ranking, not a proven profitable staking strategy. Kickmaxxing’s Choice is the first selection in that published ranking.
Keep the original record.
Published selections keep their publication odds. Outcomes and closing odds are recorded later so results, ROI and closing line value can be assessed together, with the sample size visible.
Separate a demo from a track record.
Pages marked as demo contain illustrative selections. They do not prove performance. Missing results remain unavailable; no historical return or match analysis is invented to fill a page.
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A public bankroll plays exactly the published picks, flat stake.
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No selection guarantees a win. Bets involve a risk of loss.
