Sierra Leone guide to football conditions and reference prices
Use the examples to test the meaning of a market rather than to guess an upcoming score. The guide distinguishes a dated publication from the full calendar, separates three scoring questions, and explains why a price calculation needs margin and timing context.
Separate an empty match-day list from unavailable data
It is the UTC day when the match starts that groups these selections, not the hour at which each was published. Before searching for a particular selection, check the active UTC match day and follow today or tomorrow links if you need a different day. The table contains published selections for that date and market. If it loads but contains no rows, none may be available for that combination. A message saying its data could not be fetched is a different state. Neither situation should be treated as a complete account of the fixture calendar, because these pages do not list every scheduled match.
Read the teams in their home and away order when interpreting 1X2. The home side finishing ahead is 1, an equal score is X, and the away side finishing ahead is 2, all within the period specified by the market. A 2–4 result belongs to the away outcome for that period. It does not separately answer who progresses if qualification depends on an additional stage. A double-chance condition accepts two possible results, so it cannot be treated as a single 1X2 choice simply because it lists the same teams.
The goals of both sides are added for an over 2.5 selection, with three being the first whole-goal count above the line. In a 3–1 example there are four goals; in 0–3 there are three. Both meet the total condition during the stated period, though the winner and the BTTS answer differ. Neither winning team nor scoring distribution is fixed by the over line alone. Any explicitly combined result or BTTS requirement must also be checked, because reaching the total does not settle every part of a combination.
A 1–1 draw is an especially useful under 2.5 example: the teams both score, but their combined tally remains two. BTTS Yes and the under condition can therefore occur together. The same under range also includes a scoreless 0–0 and a one-goal result such as 0–1. Count only goals belonging to the market’s specified period. Do not presume that this condition selects a winning side or guarantees a clean sheet; those requirements need to appear separately in the selection to apply.
An early goal tells you that one team has scored, not that the BTTS Yes condition has been met. The other side must also score at least once within the specified period. At 4–1 both contribute, whereas at 4–0 the visiting team has no goal and the answer is No. The home win in both examples is irrelevant to that difference. Total goals are another distinct measure. If BTTS is combined with a particular total or winner, all listed conditions remain necessary for the combined selection.
A price of 1.40, chosen only for a teaching example, gives a reciprocal of roughly 71.43% before adjustment for market margin. That is not a guarantee or a match-specific estimate. The method derives estimates from the relevant market prices while accounting for margin between outcomes, not by subtracting a constant from a single decimal price. A publication’s reference records the comparison made then; a price accepted later can be different. A very likely selection can still offer weak value if its price does not suit the estimated chance.
Both teams to score means each team must score at least one goal in the specified period. The match winner does not matter.
A likely outcome. A good price?
Probability and price answer different questions. A likely outcome can still be poorly priced. Estimated value compares the price with a reference probability; it is not a promise of profit.
Over 2.5: count the goals.
Over 2.5 requires at least three goals in total in the specified period. Two goals or fewer is Under 2.5. Check the market period and bookmaker settlement rules.
A worked example: probability and price
Illustration only: a 60% estimate implies fair decimal odds of about 1.67. At 1.50 the price is below that estimate’s break-even point; at 1.80 it is above it. The estimate can be wrong. Neither price makes a win certain, and the available price can change after publication.
Read the record, not just the hit rate
A method can win more bets than it loses and still lose money at short odds. Read ROI alongside settled sample size and maximum drawdown. Results use a flat one-unit reference stake, not a recommendation to bet every selection. Markets on the same match are correlated.
Before following a selection
Confirm the teams, market, period and current odds on the bookmaker’s site. A published quote is a snapshot, not a reserved price. Decide your limit before you play; do not increase it to chase a loss. You can always skip a selection.
See how reference odds, probability and value shape a selection. Results stay accessible, whatever the outcome.
