Under 2.5 for Pitcairn: the permitted whole-goal counts

Look at the total rather than the winning margin for Under 2.5. A 2-0 has two goals and qualifies, as does a 1-1 with one goal on either side.

Methodology

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13 selectionsMatch times: America/New_York

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10 more selections
MatchPickModel probabilityOddsSelection actions
QuindioReal Cartagena
Primera B
Under 2.5 goals57.3%Model estimate57.3%Model estimate1.62
GibraltarMalta
UEFA Nations League
Under 2.5 goals57%Model estimate57%Model estimate1.69
FYR MacedoniaSlovenia
UEFA Nations League
Under 2.5 goals56.7%Model estimate56.7%Model estimate1.71
Central African RepublicBenin
Africa Cup of Nations - Qualification
Under 2.5 goals55.5%Model estimate55.5%Model estimate1.70
SudanSenegal
Africa Cup of Nations - Qualification
Under 2.5 goals55%Model estimate55%Model estimate1.73
SwitzerlandScotland
UEFA Nations League
Under 2.5 goals54.6%Model estimate54.6%Model estimate1.77
WanderersJuventud
Primera División
Under 2.5 goals52.8%Model estimate52.8%Model estimate1.74
New Mexico UnitedSacramento Republic
USL Championship
Under 2.5 goals52.4%Model estimate52.4%Model estimate1.76
EritreaGuinea
Africa Cup of Nations - Qualification
Under 2.5 goals51.5%Model estimate51.5%Model estimate1.82
UCV MoqueguaAtletico Grau
Primera División
Under 2.5 goals51.4%Model estimate51.4%Model estimate1.83
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When does Under 2.5 win?

Under 2.5 requires no more than two goals in regular time, including stoppage time. 0–0, 1–0 and 1–1 qualify; 2–1 does not. Because the line is a half-goal, a completed match cannot land exactly on it.

How to read these picks

Look at the total rather than the winning margin for Under 2.5. A 2-0 has two goals and qualifies, as does a 1-1 with one goal on either side. The second therefore answers BTTS Yes even while satisfying the under line. Zero and one combined goal qualify too; a 1-2 fails with three. Apply the rule to the specified period, not to some other stage of play. No particular winner, draw or clean sheet is required by this count alone, so those features must not be inferred from its estimated chance. A value judgment needs both chance and relevant price; ranking the probabilities alone cannot establish the best value.

Probability describes how likely an outcome is. Odds determine the payout. Compare both, then check the settled record below; a high hit rate alone does not prove a profitable method.

Methodology →

Under 2.5: model results

Published probability-v2 selections in this market, at a flat reference stake of one unit.

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