The publication’s recorded price and a price accepted later occupy different points in time, so keep them separate when comparing an estimate. Decimal odds of 3.20, invented for arithmetic, imply a raw 31.25% through their reciprocal before margin adjustment. They are not a real-fixture prediction. The engine estimates chances by adjusting margin across the reference market, not by subtracting a constant from a decimal quote. A value judgment needs both chance and relevant price; ranking the probabilities alone cannot establish the best value.
The method converts reference bookmaker odds into estimated probabilities, with the bookmaker margin removed. These are market-derived estimates, not certainty about a match.
Compare probability with price.
Probability-v2 ranks eligible selections by their estimated probability and can include prices with negative estimated value. It is a market-derived probability ranking, not a proven profitable staking strategy. Kickmaxxing’s Choice is the first selection in that published ranking.
Keep the original record.
Published selections keep their publication odds. Outcomes and closing odds are recorded later so results, ROI and closing line value can be assessed together, with the sample size visible.
Separate a demo from a track record.
Pages marked as demo contain illustrative selections. They do not prove performance. Missing results remain unavailable; no historical return or match analysis is invented to fill a page.
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A public bankroll plays exactly the published picks, flat stake.
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No selection guarantees a win. Bets involve a risk of loss.
