Methodology

How a selection is compared with the market, then recorded.

Results by market

Start with a reference market.

The method converts reference bookmaker odds into estimated probabilities, with the bookmaker margin removed. These are market-derived estimates, not certainty about a match.

Compare probability with price.

Probability-v2 ranks eligible selections by their estimated probability and can include prices with negative estimated value. It is a market-derived probability ranking, not a proven profitable staking strategy. Kickmaxxing’s Choice is the first selection in that published ranking.

Keep the original record.

Published selections keep their publication odds. Outcomes and closing odds are recorded later so results, ROI and closing line value can be assessed together, with the sample size visible.

Separate a demo from a track record.

Pages marked as demo contain illustrative selections. They do not prove performance. Missing results remain unavailable; no historical return or match analysis is invented to fill a page.

Legacy model — value-v1

A separate record of the original value model, preserved with its published odds. Its strategy and stake convention differ from probability-v2.

Live Portfolio

A US$10,000.00 reference bankroll records the published picks at a fixed stake of 1% of the starting bankroll. Results settle the picks; closing odds measure the price comparison.

Bankroll
US$10,533.00
Since 11 Sept 2026
Profit / loss
+US$533.00
+5.3%
Record
17W – 19L
36 settled picks
ROI
+14.8%
Avg. CLV +5.3%
Bankroll after each settled pickUS$9,316.00US$9,897.33US$10,478.67US$11,060.00Kolos Kovalivka – Karpaty · Over 2.5 goals @ 2.15 · Lost · -US$100.00Kolos Kovalivka – KarpatyOver 2.5 goals @ 2.15 · Lost-US$100.00 → US$9,900.00 · 11 Sept 2026Werder Bremen W – Hamburger SV W · Under 2.5 goals @ 2.35 · Won · +US$135.00Werder Bremen W – Hamburger SV WUnder 2.5 goals @ 2.35 · Won+US$135.00 → US$10,035.00 · 11 Sept 2026Baník Lehota p.Vtáčnikom – Žilina II · Over 2.5 goals @ 1.70 · Lost · -US$100.00Baník Lehota p.Vtáčnikom – Žilina IIOver 2.5 goals @ 1.70 · Lost-US$100.00 → US$9,935.00 · 12 Sept 2026Ebro – Reddis · Under 2.5 goals @ 1.70 · Won · +US$70.00Ebro – ReddisUnder 2.5 goals @ 1.70 · Won+US$70.00 → US$10,005.00 · 12 Sept 2026Cukaricki – Novi Pazar · Under 2.5 goals @ 2.38 · Won · +US$138.00Cukaricki – Novi PazarUnder 2.5 goals @ 2.38 · Won+US$138.00 → US$10,143.00 · 12 Sept 2026Seattle Reign FC W – Bay FC W · Over 2.5 goals @ 1.85 · Lost · -US$100.00Seattle Reign FC W – Bay FC WOver 2.5 goals @ 1.85 · Lost-US$100.00 → US$10,043.00 · 13 Sept 2026APIA Leichhardt Tigers – Sydney United · Draw @ 3.20 · Lost · -US$100.00APIA Leichhardt Tigers – Sydney UnitedDraw @ 3.20 · Lost-US$100.00 → US$9,943.00 · 13 Sept 2026El Geish – Smouha SC · Draw @ 2.62 · Lost · -US$100.00El Geish – Smouha SCDraw @ 2.62 · Lost-US$100.00 → US$9,843.00 · 14 Sept 2026Inter Turku – VPS · Over 2.5 goals @ 1.95 · Lost · -US$100.00Inter Turku – VPSOver 2.5 goals @ 1.95 · Lost-US$100.00 → US$9,743.00 · 14 Sept 2026Celta de Vigo II – Eibar · Draw @ 3.20 · Lost · -US$100.00Celta de Vigo II – EibarDraw @ 3.20 · Lost-US$100.00 → US$9,643.00 · 14 Sept 2026FC Seoul – Persib Bandung · Under 2.5 goals @ 2.35 · Won · +US$135.00FC Seoul – Persib BandungUnder 2.5 goals @ 2.35 · Won+US$135.00 → US$9,778.00 · 16 Sept 2026Kitchee – Gangwon FC · Under 2.5 goals @ 2.05 · Won · +US$105.00Kitchee – Gangwon FCUnder 2.5 goals @ 2.05 · Won+US$105.00 → US$9,883.00 · 17 Sept 2026Ayutthaya FC – Uthai Thani · Draw @ 3.00 · Lost · -US$100.00Ayutthaya FC – Uthai ThaniDraw @ 3.00 · Lost-US$100.00 → US$9,783.00 · 18 Sept 2026Muğlaspor – Iğdır FK · Draw @ 3.10 · Won · +US$210.00Muğlaspor – Iğdır FKDraw @ 3.10 · Won+US$210.00 → US$9,993.00 · 18 Sept 2026Jong AZ – FC Volendam · Under 2.5 goals @ 3.40 · Lost · -US$100.00Jong AZ – FC VolendamUnder 2.5 goals @ 3.40 · Lost-US$100.00 → US$9,893.00 · 18 Sept 2026Karlsruher SC – 1. FC Nürnberg · Under 2.5 goals @ 3.50 · Won · +US$250.00Karlsruher SC – 1. FC NürnbergUnder 2.5 goals @ 3.50 · Won+US$250.00 → US$10,143.00 · 19 Sept 2026Humenné – Inter Bratislava · Under 2.5 goals @ 2.25 · Won · +US$125.00Humenné – Inter BratislavaUnder 2.5 goals @ 2.25 · Won+US$125.00 → US$10,268.00 · 19 Sept 2026Vojvodina – IMT Novi Beograd · Under 2.5 goals @ 2.25 · Won · +US$125.00Vojvodina – IMT Novi BeogradUnder 2.5 goals @ 2.25 · Won+US$125.00 → US$10,393.00 · 19 Sept 2026Al Jabalain – Al Orubah · Over 2.5 goals @ 2.20 · Lost · -US$100.00Al Jabalain – Al OrubahOver 2.5 goals @ 2.20 · Lost-US$100.00 → US$10,293.00 · 20 Sept 2026Las Palmas – Burgos · Draw @ 3.40 · Lost · -US$100.00Las Palmas – BurgosDraw @ 3.40 · Lost-US$100.00 → US$10,193.00 · 20 Sept 2026Grosseto – Perugia · Draw @ 3.20 · Lost · -US$100.00Grosseto – PerugiaDraw @ 3.20 · Lost-US$100.00 → US$10,093.00 · 20 Sept 2026San Carlos – CS Cartagines · Draw @ 3.20 · Lost · -US$100.00San Carlos – CS CartaginesDraw @ 3.20 · Lost-US$100.00 → US$9,993.00 · 21 Sept 2026Formartine United – Montrose · Under 2.5 goals @ 2.88 · Lost · -US$100.00Formartine United – MontroseUnder 2.5 goals @ 2.88 · Lost-US$100.00 → US$9,893.00 · 22 Sept 2026Alianza – Fuerte San Francisco · Over 2.5 goals @ 2.10 · Won · +US$110.00Alianza – Fuerte San FranciscoOver 2.5 goals @ 2.10 · Won+US$110.00 → US$10,003.00 · 24 Sept 2026Xelajú – Antigua GFC · Draw @ 3.10 · Lost · -US$100.00Xelajú – Antigua GFCDraw @ 3.10 · Lost-US$100.00 → US$9,903.00 · 24 Sept 2026Ironi Modi'in – Ashdod · Under 2.5 goals @ 2.25 · Lost · -US$100.00Ironi Modi'in – AshdodUnder 2.5 goals @ 2.25 · Lost-US$100.00 → US$9,803.00 · 24 Sept 2026Uzbekistan U23 – Saudi Arabia U23 · Over 2.5 goals @ 2.35 · Won · +US$135.00Uzbekistan U23 – Saudi Arabia U23Over 2.5 goals @ 2.35 · Won+US$135.00 → US$9,938.00 · 25 Sept 2026Haras El Hodood – Dayrout · Under 2.5 goals @ 1.85 · Won · +US$85.00Haras El Hodood – DayroutUnder 2.5 goals @ 1.85 · Won+US$85.00 → US$10,023.00 · 25 Sept 2026Atlético Madrid II – Villarreal II · Away win @ 3.00 · Won · +US$200.00Atlético Madrid II – Villarreal IIAway win @ 3.00 · Won+US$200.00 → US$10,223.00 · 25 Sept 2026Penybont – Airbus UK · Away win @ 3.00 · Lost · -US$100.00Penybont – Airbus UKAway win @ 3.00 · Lost-US$100.00 → US$10,123.00 · 26 Sept 2026Tranmere – Walsall · Draw @ 3.50 · Won · +US$250.00Tranmere – WalsallDraw @ 3.50 · Won+US$250.00 → US$10,373.00 · 26 Sept 2026Cittadella – Lecco · Over 2.5 goals @ 2.10 · Won · +US$110.00Cittadella – LeccoOver 2.5 goals @ 2.10 · Won+US$110.00 → US$10,483.00 · 26 Sept 2026Sint Maarten – Belize · Under 2.5 goals @ 2.15 · Won · +US$115.00Sint Maarten – BelizeUnder 2.5 goals @ 2.15 · Won+US$115.00 → US$10,598.00 · 27 Sept 2026Antofagasta – Deportes Iquique · Over 2.5 goals @ 2.35 · Won · +US$135.00Antofagasta – Deportes IquiqueOver 2.5 goals @ 2.35 · Won+US$135.00 → US$10,733.00 · 27 Sept 2026Mixco – Antigua GFC · Draw @ 3.15 · Lost · -US$100.00Mixco – Antigua GFCDraw @ 3.15 · Lost-US$100.00 → US$10,633.00 · 27 Sept 2026Žilina II – Humenné · Away win @ 3.30 · Lost · -US$100.00Žilina II – HumennéAway win @ 3.30 · Lost-US$100.00 → US$10,533.00 · 28 Sept 2026US$10,533.00Start36 settled picks
Max drawdown US$590.00 · average CLV +5.3%. ROI and CLV are read alongside the sample size; a short record proves little either way.

Nothing is bet on your behalf. The portfolio is a public record of the method, at the published odds, with a flat stake. Past results do not guarantee future ones. This portfolio tracks value selections. Probability selections have a separate record.

Show the 36 settled picks

Closing comparison uses an available snapshot within two hours before kick-off, prioritising the target bookmaker and falling back to a reference bookmaker. It is not necessarily the last price or the same bookmaker. A dash means no measurement.

All settled picks · kickoff dates in UTC
DateMatchPickOddsClosing oddsCLVResultProfit / lossBankroll after
Žilina II – Humenné2. ligaAway winValue selection3.303.60-8.3%Lost-US$100.00US$10,533.00
Mixco – Antigua GFCLiga NacionalDrawValue selection3.153.35-6%Lost-US$100.00US$10,633.00
Antofagasta – Deportes IquiqueCopa ChileOver 2.5 goalsValue selection2.352.00+17.5%Won+US$135.00US$10,733.00
Sint Maarten – BelizeCONCACAF Nations LeagueUnder 2.5 goalsValue selection2.15——Won+US$115.00US$10,598.00
Cittadella – LeccoSerie C - Girone AOver 2.5 goalsValue selection2.10——Won+US$110.00US$10,483.00
Tranmere – WalsallLeague TwoDrawValue selection3.50——Won+US$250.00US$10,373.00
Penybont – Airbus UKPremier LeagueAway winValue selection3.00——Lost-US$100.00US$10,123.00
Atlético Madrid II – Villarreal IIPrimera División RFEF - Group 2Away winValue selection3.002.62+14.5%Won+US$200.00US$10,223.00
Haras El Hodood – DayroutSecond LeagueUnder 2.5 goalsValue selection1.851.70+8.8%Won+US$85.00US$10,023.00
Uzbekistan U23 – Saudi Arabia U23Asian GamesOver 2.5 goalsValue selection2.352.10+11.9%Won+US$135.00US$9,938.00
Ironi Modi'in – AshdodLiga LeumitUnder 2.5 goalsValue selection2.252.15+4.7%Lost-US$100.00US$9,803.00
Xelajú – Antigua GFCLiga NacionalDrawValue selection3.103.20-3.1%Lost-US$100.00US$9,903.00
Alianza – Fuerte San FranciscoPrimera DivisionOver 2.5 goalsValue selection2.102.05+2.4%Won+US$110.00US$10,003.00
Formartine United – MontroseChallenge CupUnder 2.5 goalsValue selection2.882.35+22.6%Lost-US$100.00US$9,893.00
San Carlos – CS CartaginesPrimera DivisiónDrawValue selection3.203.00+6.7%Lost-US$100.00US$9,993.00
Grosseto – PerugiaSerie C - Girone BDrawValue selection3.203.200%Lost-US$100.00US$10,093.00
Las Palmas – BurgosSegunda DivisiónDrawValue selection3.403.400%Lost-US$100.00US$10,193.00
Al Jabalain – Al OrubahDivision 1Over 2.5 goalsValue selection2.202.00+10%Lost-US$100.00US$10,293.00
Vojvodina – IMT Novi BeogradSuper LigaUnder 2.5 goalsValue selection2.252.250%Won+US$125.00US$10,393.00
Humenné – Inter Bratislava2. ligaUnder 2.5 goalsValue selection2.252.05+9.8%Won+US$125.00US$10,268.00
Karlsruher SC – 1. FC Nürnberg2. BundesligaUnder 2.5 goalsValue selection3.503.40+2.9%Won+US$250.00US$10,143.00
Jong AZ – FC VolendamEerste DivisieUnder 2.5 goalsValue selection3.403.10+9.7%Lost-US$100.00US$9,893.00
Muğlaspor – Iğdır FK1. LigDrawValue selection3.103.20-3.1%Won+US$210.00US$9,993.00
Ayutthaya FC – Uthai ThaniThai League 1DrawValue selection3.003.10-3.2%Lost-US$100.00US$9,783.00
Kitchee – Gangwon FCAFC Champions League TwoUnder 2.5 goalsValue selection2.051.95+5.1%Won+US$105.00US$9,883.00
FC Seoul – Persib BandungAFC Champions League TwoUnder 2.5 goalsValue selection2.352.00+17.5%Won+US$135.00US$9,778.00
Celta de Vigo II – EibarSegunda DivisiónDrawValue selection3.203.200%Lost-US$100.00US$9,643.00
Inter Turku – VPSVeikkausliigaOver 2.5 goalsValue selection1.952.00-2.5%Lost-US$100.00US$9,743.00
El Geish – Smouha SCPremier LeagueDrawValue selection2.622.60+0.8%Lost-US$100.00US$9,843.00
APIA Leichhardt Tigers – Sydney UnitedNew South Wales NPLDrawValue selection3.203.200%Lost-US$100.00US$9,943.00
Seattle Reign FC W – Bay FC WNWSL WomenOver 2.5 goalsValue selection1.851.70+8.8%Lost-US$100.00US$10,043.00
Cukaricki – Novi PazarSuper LigaUnder 2.5 goalsValue selection2.381.95+22.1%Won+US$138.00US$10,143.00
Ebro – ReddisSegunda División RFEF - Group 2Under 2.5 goalsValue selection1.701.700%Won+US$70.00US$10,005.00
Baník Lehota p.Vtáčnikom – Žilina II2. ligaOver 2.5 goalsValue selection1.701.57+8.3%Lost-US$100.00US$9,935.00
Werder Bremen W – Hamburger SV WFrauen BundesligaUnder 2.5 goalsValue selection2.352.350%Won+US$135.00US$10,035.00
Kolos Kovalivka – KarpatyPremier LeagueOver 2.5 goalsValue selection2.151.95+10.3%Lost-US$100.00US$9,900.00

No selection guarantees a win. Bets involve a risk of loss.

Browse selections