A condition can be highly likely without offering the best value at its price. For a fictitious decimal price of 2.50, taking the reciprocal gives 40% raw implied probability before margin adjustment; no real fixture is described. The engine adjusts margin using the market reference prices rather than taking it directly off the decimal quote. Keep the stored publication reference distinct from a later accepted price, which may change. A value comparison requires the estimate and the price of the same condition, not a probability ranking alone.
The method converts reference bookmaker odds into estimated probabilities, with the bookmaker margin removed. These are market-derived estimates, not certainty about a match.
Compare probability with price.
Probability-v2 ranks eligible selections by their estimated probability and can include prices with negative estimated value. It is a market-derived probability ranking, not a proven profitable staking strategy. Kickmaxxing’s Choice is the first selection in that published ranking.
Keep the original record.
Published selections keep their publication odds. Outcomes and closing odds are recorded later so results, ROI and closing line value can be assessed together, with the sample size visible.
Separate a demo from a track record.
Pages marked as demo contain illustrative selections. They do not prove performance. Missing results remain unavailable; no historical return or match analysis is invented to fill a page.
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A public bankroll plays exactly the published picks, flat stake.
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No selection guarantees a win. Bets involve a risk of loss.
