Take a fictional price of 3.25 for arithmetic: dividing one by it yields around 30.77% before margin adjustment. This raw reciprocal is not a forecast for a real match. Market-derived estimates take account of margin across the relevant outcomes instead of removing a fixed amount from an individual decimal price. The stored reference preserves the publication’s price context, but a price accepted later may change the comparison. Value depends on that price relative to the estimate, so a larger estimated probability need not be the better-priced choice.
The method converts reference bookmaker odds into estimated probabilities, with the bookmaker margin removed. These are market-derived estimates, not certainty about a match.
Compare probability with price.
Probability-v2 ranks eligible selections by their estimated probability and can include prices with negative estimated value. It is a market-derived probability ranking, not a proven profitable staking strategy. Kickmaxxing’s Choice is the first selection in that published ranking.
Keep the original record.
Published selections keep their publication odds. Outcomes and closing odds are recorded later so results, ROI and closing line value can be assessed together, with the sample size visible.
Separate a demo from a track record.
Pages marked as demo contain illustrative selections. They do not prove performance. Missing results remain unavailable; no historical return or match analysis is invented to fill a page.
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A public bankroll plays exactly the published picks, flat stake.
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No selection guarantees a win. Bets involve a risk of loss.
