Understand before you play.

The basics of markets, prices and probability.

Methodology

BTTS: two teams, one question.

Both teams to score means each team must score at least one goal in the specified period. The match winner does not matter.

A likely outcome. A good price?

Probability and price answer different questions. A likely outcome can still be poorly priced. Estimated value compares the price with a reference probability; it is not a promise of profit.

Over 2.5: count the goals.

Over 2.5 requires at least three goals in total in the specified period. Two goals or fewer is Under 2.5. Check the market period and bookmaker settlement rules.

A worked example: probability and price

Illustration only: a 60% estimate implies fair decimal odds of about 1.67. At 1.50 the price is below that estimate’s break-even point; at 1.80 it is above it. The estimate can be wrong. Neither price makes a win certain, and the available price can change after publication.

Read the record, not just the hit rate

A method can win more bets than it loses and still lose money at short odds. Read ROI alongside settled sample size and maximum drawdown. Results use a flat one-unit reference stake, not a recommendation to bet every selection. Markets on the same match are correlated.

Before following a selection

Confirm the teams, market, period and current odds on the bookmaker’s site. A published quote is a snapshot, not a reserved price. Decide your limit before you play; do not increase it to chase a loss. You can always skip a selection.

See how reference odds, probability and value shape a selection. Results stay accessible, whatever the outcome.

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