A price accepted after publication can differ from the reference recorded with the selection. This changes the setting for a comparison. An invented decimal price of 1.25 gives 80% raw implied probability through its reciprocal before margin adjustment; it is not a real-match estimate. The engine adjusts margin across market reference prices rather than deducting it directly from the decimal price. Assess the estimate and the price of the same condition together. The greatest estimated probability alone does not demonstrate the most favourable value.
The method converts reference bookmaker odds into estimated probabilities, with the bookmaker margin removed. These are market-derived estimates, not certainty about a match.
Compare probability with price.
Probability-v2 ranks eligible selections by their estimated probability and can include prices with negative estimated value. It is a market-derived probability ranking, not a proven profitable staking strategy. Kickmaxxing’s Choice is the first selection in that published ranking.
Keep the original record.
Published selections keep their publication odds. Outcomes and closing odds are recorded later so results, ROI and closing line value can be assessed together, with the sample size visible.
Separate a demo from a track record.
Pages marked as demo contain illustrative selections. They do not prove performance. Missing results remain unavailable; no historical return or match analysis is invented to fill a page.
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A public bankroll plays exactly the published picks, flat stake.
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No selection guarantees a win. Bets involve a risk of loss.
