A recorded reference price provides a point for comparing the estimate, rather than a guarantee that the same price remains available. An illustrative decimal price of 4.00 has a raw reciprocal chance of 25%, before margin adjustment; it is not a real-match forecast. The engine adjusts the market margin using reference prices across the market, instead of subtracting a constant from the decimal odds. A later accepted price can differ from the stored reference. Value depends on chance in relation to the relevant price, not simply on which estimated chance is greatest.
The method converts reference bookmaker odds into estimated probabilities, with the bookmaker margin removed. These are market-derived estimates, not certainty about a match.
Compare probability with price.
Probability-v2 ranks eligible selections by their estimated probability and can include prices with negative estimated value. It is a market-derived probability ranking, not a proven profitable staking strategy. Kickmaxxing’s Choice is the first selection in that published ranking.
Keep the original record.
Published selections keep their publication odds. Outcomes and closing odds are recorded later so results, ROI and closing line value can be assessed together, with the sample size visible.
Separate a demo from a track record.
Pages marked as demo contain illustrative selections. They do not prove performance. Missing results remain unavailable; no historical return or match analysis is invented to fill a page.
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A public bankroll plays exactly the published picks, flat stake.
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No selection guarantees a win. Bets involve a risk of loss.
